美國降至負利率?專家稱希望不大

    Important interest rates in Europe and Japan have been negative for several years. The moves, however, could provide a warning about what happens when central banks' efforts to support growth create problems instead.
    歐洲和日本已經維持了多年的負利率。然而,此舉可能對央行保增長措施反而制造麻煩時會發生什么發出了警示。

    That is the idea expressed last week by finance officials and others at the Reuters Global Investment Outlook 2020 Summit. They argue that the effects of below-zero interest rates are long-lasting and harmful.
    這是上周金融官員等人士在《路透全球投資展望2020峰會》上表達的觀點。他們認為,負利率的影響是持久且有害的。

    Interest rates are negative when lenders – not borrowers – must pay interest.
    負利率是指貸方必須支付利息,而不是借款方支付利息。

    Critics say negative rates punish people who save money, cause problems for big banks and lead people to take bigger risks to get a small amount of interest.
    批評人士表示,負利率會懲罰儲戶,給大型銀行制造麻煩,并導致人們冒更大風險來獲得小額利息。

    About $12.5 trillion of the world's bonds, about 30 percent of the debt of countries in the developed world, pay negative interest. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank want economic growth and a small amount of inflation, so they have cut their interest rates to below zero.
    全球約有12.5萬億美元的債券是負利率,它占到了發達國家債務的30%。日本和歐洲央行希望維持經濟增長和溫和通脹,因此將利率降為負利率。

    However, a negative interest rate policy helps keep other interest rates, like the ones banks pay savers, low.
    然而,負利率政策有助于將其它利率維持在較低水平,例如銀行向儲戶支付的利率。

    That means older people saving for retirement or in retirement are losing money, explained a recent blog post by BlackRock.
    貝萊德集團在最近的一篇博客中解釋道,這意味著攢錢等退休或者已經退休的老年人正在賠錢。

    Blackrock and other investors say the U.S. Federal Reserve under Chairman Jerome Powell has been closely watching the situation in Europe and Japan. They say Powell wants to avoid negative rates in the United States.
    貝萊德集團等投資方表示,杰羅姆·鮑威爾主席領導下的美聯儲一直在密切關注歐洲和日本的局勢。他們稱鮑威爾希望避免美國出現負利率。

    "When you listen to Powell and other representatives of the Fed, they don't want to takes rates negative," said Dan Ivascyn. He is an investment officer at bond seller Pacific Investment Management Co.
    丹·伊瓦辛表示:“你聽聽鮑威爾和美聯儲其他代表的說法,他們不想采取負利率。”伊瓦辛是債券承銷商太平洋資產管理公司的一名投資官員。

    "It will be well down the list of the tools that they will use," he said.
    他說:“它排在美聯儲會采用手段清單的下方。”

    The moves by Europe and Japan's central banks have raised a question about what tools others, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, have to fight a slowing economy.
    歐洲和日本央行的舉動引發了一大疑問,即諸如美聯儲之類的其它機構會采取什么手段應對經濟放緩。

    The U.S. central bank last month cut its overnight lending rate by a fourth of a percentage point to a target somewhere between 1.5 percent and 1.75 percent.
    美聯儲上個月將隔夜借貸利率下調了1/4,降至1.5%到1.75%之間的目標水平。

    U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that the Federal Reserve push interest rates into negative numbers as a way to permit the U.S. government to refinance its $22 trillion in debt.
    美國總統川普曾建議美聯儲將利率下調至負利率,以此作為允許美國政府為其22萬億美元債務進行再融資的手段。

    That is unlikely to happen, some of the financial experts at the meetings said.
    與會金融專家表示,這不太可能會發生。

    "Never say never, but there is a real hesitancy here in the U.S. to take rates below (zero)," said Greg Peters. He is with the investment company, PGIM Fixed Income.
    格雷格·彼得斯表示:“話不能說死,但是美聯儲的確在采取零利率政策上非常猶豫不決。”他就職于PGIM固定收益投資公司。

    "I think the U.S. has had the benefit of seeing the (effects) of negative rates elsewhere," he added.
    他還說:“我認為美國已經從觀望其它地區負利率影響中受益。”

    Negative interest rates do not always lead to an increase in lending and growing business investment.
    負利率并不總是會導致貸款增加和商業投資增加。

    Negative rates can cause financial organizations to earn less. If their profits are affected they might stop lending altogether and that would hurt the economy.
    負利率會導致金融機構的收入減少。如果金融機構的利潤收到影響,他們可能會完全停止放貸,這將會損害經濟。

    Anne Mathias supervises investing at Vanguard. She is an expert in worldwide interest rates. She said negative interest rates are unlikely.
    安妮·馬蒂亞斯在先鋒集團負責投資。馬蒂亞斯是一名全球利率專家。她說美國不太可能實施負利率。

    "If we go into a recession...we will just go back to quantitative easing and expand the balance sheet again," she said.
    她說:“如果我們陷入衰退,我們會再次退回到量化寬松政策并擴大資產負債表。”

    Andrew Hsu is a manager of the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund. He warned about the effects of negative rates.
    安德魯·許是雙線總回報債券基金的經理。他對負利率影響提出了警告。

    "If we had negative rates for the next 10-20 years... no one in this room will be able to retire," he said.
    他說:“如果我們在未來10到20年實施負利率,那在座的各位誰都別想能夠退休。”

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