[ti:Negative US Interest Rates? Not Likely, Say Investors]
[00:00.04]Important interest rates in Europe and Japan have been negative for several years.
[00:08.32]The moves, however, could provide a warning about what happens
[00:14.52]when central banks' efforts to support growth create problems instead.
[00:23.96]That is the idea expressed last week by finance officials and others
[00:30.92]at the Reuters Global Investment Outlook 2020 Summit.
[00:38.08]They argue that the effects of below-zero interest rates are long-lasting and harmful.
[00:48.04]Interest rates are negative when lenders – not borrowers – must pay interest.
[00:56.84]Critics say negative rates punish people who save money, cause problems for big banks
[01:05.34]and lead people to take bigger risks to get a small amount of interest.
[01:13.20]About $12.5 trillion of the world's bonds,
[01:18.99]about 30 percent of the debt of countries in the developed world, pay negative interest.
[01:27.48]The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank want economic growth
[01:33.74]and a small amount of inflation, so they have cut their interest rates to below zero.
[01:42.68]However, a negative interest rate policy
[01:45.98]helps keep other interest rates, like the ones banks pay savers, low.
[01:53.56]That means older people saving for retirement or in retirement
[01:59.44]are losing money, explained a recent blog post by BlackRock.
[02:06.88]Blackrock and other investors say the U.S. Federal Reserve
[02:12.22]under Chairman Jerome Powell has been closely watching the situation in Europe and Japan.
[02:20.39]They say Powell wants to avoid negative rates in the United States.
[02:29.04]"When you listen to Powell and other representatives of the Fed,
[02:33.88]they don't want to takes rates negative," said Dan Ivascyn.
[02:42.36]He is an investment officer at bond seller Pacific Investment Management Co.
[02:51.24]"It will be well down the list of the tools that they will use," he said.
[02:58.36]The moves by Europe and Japan's central banks
[03:02.12]have raised a question about what tools others,
[03:05.88]such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, have to fight a slowing economy.
[03:13.40]The U.S. central bank last month cut its overnight lending rate
[03:18.92]by a fourth of a percentage point
[03:22.02]to a target somewhere between 1.5 percent and 1.75 percent.
[03:30.88]U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that the Federal Reserve
[03:36.04]push interest rates into negative numbers as a way
[03:40.28]to permit the U.S. government to refinance its $22 trillion in debt.
[03:49.20]That is unlikely to happen, some of the financial experts at the meetings said.
[03:57.08]"Never say never, but there is a real hesitancy here
[04:01.23]in the U.S. to take rates below (zero)," said Greg Peters.
[04:06.36]He is with the investment company, PGIM Fixed Income.
[04:14.16]"I think the U.S. has had the benefit
[04:17.15]of seeing the (effects) of negative rates elsewhere," he added.
[04:23.36]Negative interest rates do not always lead
[04:26.69]to an increase in lending and growing business investment.
[04:31.44]Negative rates can cause financial organizations to earn less.
[04:36.48]If their profits are affected they might stop lending altogether
[04:41.84]and that would hurt the economy.
[04:46.00]Anne Mathias supervises investing at Vanguard.
[04:50.26]She is an expert in worldwide interest rates.
[04:54.00]She said negative interest rates are unlikely.
[04:59.32]"If we go into a recession...we will just go back to quantitative easing
[05:05.09]and expand the balance sheet again," she said.
[05:10.20]Andrew Hsu is a manager of the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund.
[05:16.77]He warned about the effects of negative rates.
[05:21.32]"If we had negative rates for the next 10-20 years...
[05:25.62]no one in this room will be able to retire," he said.
[05:31.02]I'm Susan Shand. 更多聽力請訪問51VOA.COM